What does Ahmed Hussein al-Charaa (previously known as Abou Mohammed al-Joulani) want from Lebanon? A shadow hangs over Lebanon as the political situation in Syria takes a turn. The new regime in Syria has sent ripples of crisis across the Lebanese border, affecting everything from the economy to security.
Assad’ regime has historically exerted substantial political influence over Lebanon, especially during the period of Syrian military presence in Lebanon from 1976 to 2005. The departure of Syrian forces from Lebanon following the 2005 Cedar Revolution was a critical moment, but Syria continued to have significant political and military influence, particularly through its allies in Lebanon, such as Hezbollah and the March 8 Alliance.
The connection between Syria and Lebanon has been fraught with tension. For decades, Syria maintained significant influence over Lebanon’s political landscape. However, the Syrian civil war ignited a complex web of issues that both nations still struggle to unravel. As Syria’s new leadership emerges, the historical ties are tested once again, paving the way for potential further instability. Those very specific points should change, as Al-Charaa’s armed group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has fought against Hezbollah’s allies in Syria.
Economy could be the key of a new relation
Lebanon’s economy is closely intertwined with Syria’s, particularly in trade, agriculture, and energy as the two countries are bound by the 1991 treaty of “Brotherhood, Cooperation, and Coordination”. Any political change in Syria could have several economic ramifications. If the new Syrian regime were to face new international sanctions or increased isolation, this could indirectly affect Lebanon, especially given the economic ties between the two countries. Lebanon could face additional pressure to align with international policy vis-à-vis Syria.
Syria is an important land bridge for Lebanese goods to the wider Middle East and beyond. A new Syrian regime could either facilitate or hinder trade routes – especially for agriculture –, depending on its foreign policy and internal stability. Any increase in border tensions could disrupt the flow of goods, harming Lebanon’s economy. Lebanon has also struggled with chronic energy shortages, and any new Syrian regime might impact energy supplies, especially if they maintain or change their relationship with Lebanon over shared resources like electricity or water.
Regional and international realignment
Sectarian divisions have deepened amidst external challenges. Groups within Lebanon are increasingly polarized, fueling conflict and hostility. This division complicates efforts to unite against common threats. The broader regional environment would also be impacted by changes in Syria’s political leadership, which could, in turn, influence Lebanon. Former Syria has been a key ally of Iran, and Hezbollah’s relationship with both Tehran and Damascus has been critical in shaping Lebanon’s political landscape for the past three decades. If the new Syrian regime were to pursue a different geopolitical strategy, this could challenge Hezbollah’s regional influence. Moreover, if Syria improves relations with Arab countries or the West, Lebanon might benefit from a shift in regional dynamics. But for now, the main support of the new regime comes from Ankara and President Erdogan. And this could change the balance in the region.
The change in Syria’s leadership could lead to shifts in Lebanese political alliances. For example, if the new regime were less supportive of Hezbollah, this could weaken Hezbollah’s standing and alter the balance of power in Lebanon, particularly with the March 14 Alliance (Lebanese factions opposed to Syrian influence). We already see the lines moving with the upcoming presidential election (probably held on January 9) as Lebanese political parties have agreed on General Joseph Aoun’s candidacy. The current Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (since 2017) may succeed Michel Aoun who left office in October 2022. The presidential void is almost over. Thanks to Bashar el-Assad’s departure.
But any shift in Syria’s direction could have a significant impact on Lebanon’s fragile sectarian balance. For example, if Syria’s new regime were to favor one sect over another, this could feed into Lebanon’s own sectarian power struggles, potentially escalating internal tensions or sparking violence. Only time will tell.
The refugees burden
The Syrian civil war created a massive refugee crisis. Millions fled to neighboring countries, with Lebanon absorbing a large number. This sudden influx has strained Lebanon’s already delicate situation, leading to increased tension and resource competition. The impact is not just social; it alters the very fabric of Lebanon’s communities.
Since 2011, the arrival of around 1.5 million Syrian refugees has put immense pressure on Lebanon’s resources. Schools, healthcare systems, and essential services are overwhelmed, leading to decreased quality for both locals and newcomers. If the new Syrian regime were to pursue policies that encourage the return of refugees to Syria, Lebanon could face challenges regarding the repatriation process. The Lebanese government might face significant challenges in managing refugee returns, especially if Syria’s internal conditions remain unstable or if there is no genuine peace.
The new Syrian regime is a double-edged sword for Lebanon. It brings instability, economic woes, and humanitarian crises that strain an already fragile nation. In summary, the new Syrian regime could have wide-ranging impacts on Lebanon, touching on political power dynamics, security concerns, economic ties, and sectarian tensions. The nature of these impacts would depend largely on the political orientation and stability of the new Syrian leadership, as well as the capacity of Lebanon’s politicians to address the myriad issues requires both internal reforms and external support. Sustainable policies must emerge from within, including tackling corruption and enhancing public services… The list is long. But in Beirut, the Lebanese people want to believe it can be done, optimism is on the rise.
